Since the onset of the crisis in Greece in late 2009, foreign exchange-traders have been forecasting that the euro will sink to dollar parity before becoming extinct. This expectation is considered "common sense" among most Americans, including those watching the euro's fluctuations with a view to their costs for vacations or alimony or investments from dollar accounts.
market" brought about by new technologies. In the early years of this new century, the darker side of the global market has become more evident as economic trouble anywhere becomes economic trouble everywhere: e.g., the failure of Lehman caused a global contagion.
Kerry Brown, author of a recent European Affairs article on the U.S and China, appeared on National Public Radio to talk about the possibility of China’s investment into the eurozone bailout fund.
| Horizon2020: The New European Program for Research and Innovation and Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation |
On January 18, 2012, The European Institute welcomed back Máire Geoghegan-Quinn, European Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation. With characteristic candor and clarity, Commissioner Geoghegan-Quinn presented the European Commission’s bold, new Horizon 2020 proposal, that is focused on improving Europe’s science base and research infrastructure, strengthening Europe’s leadership in key industrial technologies, and facilitating research and innovation that address societal challenges. Horizon 2020 carries an €80 billion budget for 2014-2020, renews emphasis on pooling and sharing across member states, and proposes major simplification and harmonization to ensure effective implementation of its policy objectives. Dr. Alan Leshner, Chief Executive Officer for the American Association for the Advancement of Science introduced the Commissioner and Kathryn Karol, Vice President for International Government Affairs at Amgen Inc. moderated the discussion. |
| Connecting Europe: A Lithuanian Perspective |
| Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean: A Cypriot Perspective |
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NATO FACES TOUGHER CHOICES IN CHANGING TRANSATLANTIC CONTEXT
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WHY IS THE DAMNED EURO SO DAMN STRONG?
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DO NATIONS GET THE CRISES THEY DESERVE?
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TRANSATLANTIC STORM TRIGGERED BY EU PLAN FOR AIRLINE EMISSIONS
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“LISBON: WAR IN THE SHADOWS OF THE CITY OF LIGHT, 1939-1945” BY NEILL LOCHERY
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OUR MUST READS
Time to Reform the EU Emission Trading Scheme by Thomas Spencer and Emmanuel Guérin in European Energy Review. The EU’s pioneering Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) has come to be seen as largely ineffectual as a cap-and-trade approach to curbing carbons. This comprehensive analysis recommends major reforms to save it. Recommended by European Affairs. (1/27)
Putin’s Canny Politics in Russian Elections by Gregory Feifer in The Washington Post. Putin detractors in the U.S. and elsewhere may be premature in jumping on the United Russia party’s poor showing in the Duma elections as a sign that the leader is starting to lose his grip on power. In the view of this close Russia-watcher, it’s not the party, stupid, it’s Putin. United Russia is only a stalking horse. Recommended by European Affairs. (12/8)
Why America Should Care About the Collapse of European Unity by Simon Schama in The Daily Beast. This perceptive historian of all things transatlantic retraces the reasons for Europeans to pursue "unity in diversity" -- currently via the EU and the euro. The failure of earlier attempts at this in the 20th century cost the world dearly. In its own interest, the U.S. must stand ready to come again to the aid of the "old world." Recommended by European Affairs. (12/5)
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The European Institute's 2011 Ambassadors' Dinner honoring Christine Lagarde and Dr. Elias Zerhouni in Reuters:
The European Institute Honors Christine Lagarde and Dr. Elias Zerhouni with the Prestigious Transatlantic Leadership Award
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Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's visit to The European Institute in The Washington Post:
"Lavrov: Missile Defense Remains the Biggest Irritant in US-Russian Relations" by the AP
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Christine Lagarde at The European Institute's 2011 Ambassadors' Dinner in Le Monde:
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Belgian Foreign Minister Steven Vanackere on a common European foreign policy at The European Institute in PBS NewsHour:
"Belgium's Foreign Minister on EU, Global Missions" by Michael Mosettig
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The European Institute's event with Sergey Lavrov, Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation in PBS NewsHour's The Rundown:
"Russian FM Lavrov Wined and Dined During U.S. Visit" by Michael Mosettig
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The European Institute's event with Claude-France Arnould, Chief Executive of the European Defense Agency in SIGNAL Magazine's blog:
"EDA's Arnould: "Pooling and Sharing" Vital in Lean Times" by Max Cacas
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European Commissioner for Research, Innovation and Science Máire Geoghegan-Quinn's visit to The European Institute in the Irish Times:
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European Commissioner for Health and Consumer Policy John Dalli at The European Institute in Europolitics:
"In Washington, Dalli Offers Assurances on GMOs" by Brian Beary
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Markus Ziener, the Handelsblatt correspondent and member of European Affairs’ advisory board, appeared on National Public Radio’s nationally-syndicated program, the Diane Rehm show on September 19, to discuss themes about Germany and the debt crisis that he covered in an article in the current edition of European Affairs.
Our Blog
EU DATA-PRIVACY PLANS FOR OVERHAUL, WITH SOME POTENTIAL PROBLEMS FOR U.S. COMPANIES (1/25)
By Zachary Laven --- European Affairs editorial assistant The European Commission’s proposal for a sweeping overhaul of rules protecting individuals’ privacy in on-line data was unveiled Wednesday as a modernizing step that could reassure users and streamline procedures for companies in this complex new legal and technical environment.EU Agrees To Boycott Iranian Oil, Aligning With Long-Standing U.S. Ban (1/24)
A decision to halt EU oil imports from Iran, taken Monday by a meeting of the EU’s foreign ministers, marks the strongest step taken so far by Europe to counter Iran’s suspected nuclear ambitions. It coincided with an expansion of U.S. sanctions (which have long barred Iranian oil) to include Iran’s third-largest bank. A steeper financial escalation is under active consideration by the Obama administration in the form of action to cut U.S. dealings with Iran’s central bank and press allied capitals to join in isolating Iran financially. Such a move would make it harder for Tehran to use oil revenues for international purchases aimed at strengthening the country’s nuclear program.EU – Like White House – Publically Criticizes Terms of Proposed U.S. Law on Internet Piracy (1/20)
The top European official dealing with internet matters spoke out publicly against Congressional draft bills penalizing websites for pirating movies as “bad legislation.” Her statement, via Twitter, reflected what her spokesman said was “concern about peoples’ access to the internet.”A Weakening Euro Could Now Be Good For Eurozone By Inciting Export Growth (1/11)
Despite the sovereign debt woes of some countries in the eurozone, the euro currency itself has stood up strongly (surprising so to many) in currency markets, particularly against the dollar. That rate has changed in recent weeks, in favor of the dollar: the euro has now depreciated by nearly 10 percent against the dollar. The falling euro's international value could make European exports more competitive globally, particularly those of Germany and Italy. The euro has been "devalued" slightly in currency markets as (1) the U.S. economy has shown signs of revival and as (2) the European Central Bank's policy of maintaining very low interest rates under the bank's new head, Mario Draghi. If it lasts for six months, a euro "devaluation" of this sort could add a point economic growth in some eurozone countries (and also make existing loans a little cheaper to pay off), analysts say. That, in turn, could spare the EU as a whole from sinking back into recession and facilitate the reform process in troubled eurozone economies such as convalescent Italy. By European AffairsHavel: A Great Leader of Post-Cold War Europe Who Sought To “Live in Truth” (12/19)
In the era which restored Europe whole and free, Vaclav Havel bears comparison with Nelson Mandela as a leader whose stature was crucial in obtaining a worthy place for his liberated nation. "His role brought Czechoslovaka into NATO and into the EU much faster than world otherwise have been the case," Czech Deputy Foreign Minister Jiri Schneider said in his tribute to the Czech playwright and president who died this weekend. The comparison is only a loose approximation, with some caveats. The towering resistance figure, of course, is Poland's Lech Walesa, not only in his own country but across eastern and central Europe. A difference between the two hereos is that Havel remained a powerful international voice in the ensuing decade. Havel, in contrast to Mandela, did not avoid the break-up of his newly democratic nation (Havel said later that he regretted not having worked harder to prevent the split that created Slovakia). And, in contrast to Mandela, Havel opposed a post-liberation "truth" investigation of Czechs' collaboration with Moscow during the era of Soviet control: Havel feared the baring of wounds and treachery would leave rancor, not reconciliation. Nor did he create a party to succeed him -- a fact that helps explain why Havel in his post-presidential decades was more revered (and even listened to) abroad than at home. What was quintessential was Havel’s sense of irony. As an often-banned artist, his satirical drama nurtured his ironic tone. A fatalistic sense of irony helped sustain him in his personal and political ethic -- "living in truth.” That standard dictated his choice to remain in his homeland after the Soviet invasion in 1968, where he was relegated to a series of menial jobs (when he was not in prison) with no prospects for his career. After the years of darkness, when he emerged as his nation’s leader, his sense of irony sustained him in often-controversial decisions in which he imposed his core values of freedom despite the political costs of his stance. This eloquent style, in his writings and in his life, made Havel a leader who brought a “European” panache, reminding everyone that his country and the neighboring new democracies belonged to Europe (and always had). Havel’s personal style is captured in this piece written about him in the International Herald Tribune in 2003 as he left power.Croatia Signs Treaty to Join EU in 2013: Three Questions to Top Diplomat in U.S. (12/12)
Croatia's leaders signed an EU accession treaty on December 9, putting the country on course for a referendum next year and then full membership in July 2013. Marking the EU’s expansion into the Balkans, the step (after seven years of negotiations) was hailed by European Council President Herman Van Rompuy: “Croatia is a pioneer, demonstrating in a tangible way that the future of the western Balkans as a whole lies in the European Union.” Marking the event, “European Affairs” put three questions to Vice Skracic, Chargé d'Affaires in the Croatian embassy in Washington. EA: What Was The Most Challenging Part of Your Country’s Accession Negotiations? VS: No one phase is more difficult than the others because you’re really looking at completely transforming the regulatory system and introducing everything needed for an EU framework and comfortable environment for investment. Of course, one of our biggest challenges was the strengthening of our judiciary and its administration. And we had a requirement to demonstrate full cooperation with the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia in The Hague – which we did. Another specific problem was a Slovenian blockade over a bi-lateral border issue with us. We believe it was against the rules of the negotiating framework – and the problem was ultimately referred to arbitration on the agreement of both nations, for a process to commence immediately following our signing of the EU accession agreement. We have announced that Croatia will never resort to blockades over any bilateral issues with neighbors. EA: What Is The Immediate Outlook For Croatia And Its Neighbors? VS: Now Croatia has gained full observer status in the EU so we will take part in discussions and can express our views – without voting. That can only come after ratification by all 27 current member states. Let me stress that Croatia is a strong advocate for membership for all the countries in southeast Europe. Within the EU, we continue to press in this direction. We are hoping that Serbia will receive candidate status in the first quarter of 2012. We are pleased about the decision for Montenegro to start membership talks next June. We believe that prosperity (and stability) can only be achieved for our region via membership in the EU. EA: What Are The Expectations And Attitudes Among Croatians Toward The EU? VS: Public opinion among Croatians is relatively positive toward the EU, with polls showing about 60 percent of the population in favor of membership. Now we will start an intensive campaign reaching out to our citizens to sensitize them to the positive sides and any negative aspects of our effort to join the EU so that they can express their opinion in our referendum. The Croatian leadership since independence in 1991 has seen Euro-Atlantic integration as our foreign policy goal. After the events in the 1990s that led to the break-up of Yugoslavia, we really only got started on the EU road after 2000, with the first stabilization agreement in 2003. Croatians feel that this is a natural movement because we are a part of Europe and are now rejoining “the European house” where we naturally belong. As our president said in Brussels at the accession signing ceremony, “Croatia is better with the EU, and the EU is better with Croatia.” -- European AffairsBritain Marginalizes Itself in EU (12/9)
The outcome of the Brussels summit on December 8th and 9th is a disaster for the UK and also threatens the integrity of the single market, says a well-reported article by Charles Grant, head of the Centre for European Reform, a European-minded but independent think-tank in London. For more than 50 years, a cardinal principle of Britain’s foreign policy has been to be present when EU bodies take decisions, so that London can influence the outcome. That tradition has been broken, at least for the foreseeable future, by poor British policy at the EU summit. Britain’s so-called veto – which has not stopped anything from happening except for Britain – was wielded by Cameron because he could not obtain special protection for the financial interests of the City, London’s rival to Wall Street. Cameron was right to seek to protect the interests of Britain’s hugely important financial services industry, Grant writes, because most financial regulations are decided by qualified majority vote, and there is a risk that new EU rules could damage this vital national interest. But, he adds, "Britain has never yet been outvoted on a significant piece of EU financial regulation. If Cameron had been prepared to compromise on his demands, he might have been able to secure a deal.” The ineptness of British diplomacy in this situation (and the powerful factors at work in the rest of the EU, largely at the instigation of France and Germany, are analyzed in Grant’s post-summit article, “Britain on the edge of Europe.” -- European AffairsBritain Splits With EU In Vetoing Plan for Financial Rules for All 27 Member States (12/9)
The most significant result so far in the crucial euro summit has been British Prime Minister David Cameron’s decision to opt out of a proposed agreement on national budgets that would have involved some forfeit of national sovereignty. The plan is aimed at restoring future credibility to the euro and, although Britain never adopted the euro and is therefore not in the eurozone, the proposal was desigend to cover all EU member states. Vetoed by Britain, the plan will now proceed on an “op-in” basis, and most other EU countries are expected to join it, leaving London isolated on this issue. So two decades to the day after the Maastricht Treaty was concluded, launching the process towards the single European currency, the EU's tectonic plates have slipped momentously along the same fault line that has always divided it -- the English Channel. The upshot is that France, Germany and 21 other countries have decided to draft their own treaty to impose more central control over national budgets. Three more EU member states -- Sweden, the Czech Republic and Hungary -- may join, too, after they have had time to consult their parliaments and political parties about this new “union within-the-union.” The Economist, a leading British publication, describes this development as “Europe’s Great Divorce” and writes that it is “a famous political victory, especially for France, on the brink of losing its AAA credit rating and now the junior partner to Germany. President Nicolas Sarkozy had long favoured the creation of a smaller, "core" euro zone, without the awkward British, Scandinavians and eastern Europeans that generally pursue more liberal, market-oriented policies. And he has wanted the core run on an inter-governmental basis, i.e. by leaders rather than by supranational European institutions. This would allow France, and Mr. Sarkozy in particular, to maximise its impact.” -- European AffairsAt “Make-or-Break” Euro Summit, Tighter Unity Can Save EU – and Spare U.S. (12/6)
The fate of the euro and all it implies seems to be at stake in the EU leaders' summit meeting opening Friday. A successful meeting -- meaning one that advances the agenda to create supranational oversight of member states’ budgets -- will keep alive prospects for a reversal of recent market trends and a revival of credibility for the euro.Is EU Offering Real “Flexibility” on Fees for Airlines on Carbon Emissions? (12/1)
The neuralgic international dispute on emission fees for airlines has finally jumped to the top of the “transatlantic” in-boxes in Washington and Brussels. The issue has been venomously deadlocked for months, as described in a recent article in European Affairs (which sparked feedback, public and private, from both industry and regulatory circles). But the long-simmering dispute is now approaching a January 1 deadline – trigger date for the EU to start its program on airliners for their carbon emissions over their entire flights anywhere in the world if they use an EU airport.Merchant Ships Starting to Carry Armed Guards against Somali Pirates (11/22)
More governments are authorizing their merchant ships to carry weapons for self-defense as Somalia-based pirates step up the tempo and reach of their operations pillaging international shipping across an ever-widening arc from the Gulf of Aden deep into the Indian Ocean.Scoring the Eurozone in Crisis: Slippage? Or Progress? (11/21)
UPDATE (11/21): Spain's election Sunday gave Spanish conservatives their biggest election victory in the country's post-Franco democracy. The center-right Popular Party, led by incoming prime minister Mariano Rajoy, 56, will have an absolute majority in the lower house allowing it to pass laws without the support of other parties. Rajoy campaigned on a pledge of tough austerity measures that he now promises to carry out -- in effect, rallying to the main thrust of the economic reform program that his party publicly rejected while it was in opposition.EU Summit Seems to Mark Turning Point in Long-Running Crisis of Euro and Debt (10/27)
As EU leaders emerged from their marathon negotiations on resolving their nations’ multi-faceted financial crisis, all proclaimed victory while speaking in ways designed to be well-received in their own countries.Can Euro Log Jam Be Broken with Help from IMF? Will U.S. Go Along? (10/24)
Too sensitive to be aired extensively in public, a potentially crucial element in this week’s “make-or-break” negotiations on the eurozone’s debt crisis is a possible buy-in by the International Monetary Fund.Russia Is Early Mover on Shipping via Widening Channels in Arctic (10/24)
Amid ongoing international discussions about the Arctic sea as it unfreezes more of the year and opens for traffic, Russian maritime companies are starting to use its widening channels as a sea route that can shorten the distance between Europe and Asia during longer and longer parts of the summer as the polar ice pack recedes. Running along Russia’s shore, this expanding new “Northern Sea Route” is the sea-going version of the “over the pole” flights that have become routine for aircraft. [Here is a New York Times map of the NSR through the Eastern Arctic]PERSPECTIVES: Bold Blueprint For Action, Now, To Solve Eurozone Crisis (10/12)
An open letter co-signed by Bertrand Collomb, chairman emeritus of the French multinational, Lafarge, who is a board member of the European Institute. The letter calls on the leaders of the eurozone to move now -- to create a common treasury for the 17-nation group together with common supervision, regulation and deposit insurance. This fiscal convergence needs to be accompanied by a strategy that includes growth as the only way to surmount the debt problem, it states.ECB Transition Unlikely To Derail Hopes Of Finding Light in Euro Tunnel (10/6)
As Jean-Claude Trichet gave his final news conference before stepping down as president of the European Central Bank, speculation focused on the likely stance of his successor – Italian central banker Mario Draghi – amid the euro-turmoil.Elections in Denmark and Latvia Push Back Against Populist, Rightwing Trend in EU (10/05)
National parliamentary elections in two of the smaller EU countries — Denmark and Latvia – have broken with the trend for political gains in recent years by ultra-rightwing, nationalistic, anti-immigrant parties. Denmark got a new prime minister – the first woman to win the post -- in Social Democrat Helle Thorning-Schmidt (who happens to be the daughter-in-law of Britain’s former Labor Party leader Neal Kinnock.) She eked out enough seats to become the leader of a new center-left coalition government. It is expected to ease up on enforcement of some recent Danish anti-immigrant provisions that have caused consternation in other EU countries.Euro! Back From the Brink – With Renewed Hope For Salvation (9/29)
If German parliamentarians had said “no” this morning, the EU plan to increase its war fund to defend Greece’s credit would have been vetoed. Governments’ collective efforts around the world to save the euro would have hit a juddering crash and crack-up, with tsunami-like ripple effects on the global economy. That prospect seemed very alive only last weekend, driving down the euro’s value and stock prices.EU Urgency Mounts as Greece and Eurozone Near Brink (9/28)
The head of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, delivered a challenging “state of the union” speech for the EU warning that the union faces the toughest challenge in its half-century history, which he said can only be met by member states agreeing to be more integrated in the way they run their finances.OUR SUPPORTERS
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