The main challenger to President Nicolas Sarkozy in the hard-fought French election contest that culminates in a few weeks is a man virtually unknown outside his own country – François Hollande. To the surprise of many people outside of France, the polling data has consistently shown the incumbent trailing his opponent, including in the widely expected situation in which election turns on a run-off between the two men. Long-time stalwart and one-time leader of the Socialist party, Hollande, 57, has had little international exposure during his decades as a French parliamentarian. So who is he? And if he is elected President, what is likely to change in U.S.-French relations or in France’s position inside the European Union?
A major World Bank study, published this month, lauds the European Union as an extraordinary economic success story and concludes that the current turmoil, far from being a terminal failure, should be the trigger for reforms to improve the community’s weak points. The thorough, richly documented analysis provides a strong antidote to prevailing prescriptions of the euro’s impending doom. Such euro-pessimism has prevailed in recent years, as the Eurozone has struggled to address bouts of mismanagement and muddled leadership within its ranks. Deep flaws within the monetary union were exposed, along with the resulting structural imbalances in the system, when the global financial storm broke over the continent nearly five years age.
Is the Obama administration edging quietly towards an historic shift in U.S. national security strategy? Is a change in the works going far beyond the “pivot to Asia” and troop drawdown in Europe announced by the President in January as the first outcome of the Congressionally-mandated need to cut defense spending?
versy over legislation in the U.S., Europe and Canada to protect online copyright has mobilized a wave of new players from the user comm unity who deploy the Internet in new ways to influence the political debate. This phenomenon -- characterized by street protests organized via social media, online petitions, viral videos and other "hacktivism" techniques -- is being called "exo-politics" (i.e. outside politics as usual). It may presage a significant change in the political power equation.
nal Telecommunication Union (ITU) has begun to study “the Cloud” as a rising digital technology, viewed by many as the next big frontier in the development of the information age. ITU involvement could mean stormy weather for the cloud, for both Europeans and Americans. The Americans largely see the cloud as an economic engine, while the Europeans, slow at first to embrace the cloud, now wish to balance its potential with consumer privacy protections. But the ITU is a global forum, where countries outside of Europe and the U.S. can often impact outcomes--a prospect that is worrisome on both sides of the Atlantic.
Christine Lagarde at The European Institute's 2011 Ambassadors' Dinner in Le Monde:
| How to Stay Competitive in the Global Economy: Are the U.S. & EU Facing the Same Challenges? |
On May 11, The European Institute welcomed The Honorable Antonio Tajani, Vice President of the European Commission and Commissioner for Industry and Entrepreneurship, to a breakfast roundtable on the challenges faced by the United States and European Union in maintaining a competitive edge in today’s global economy. Vice President Tajani shared his perspective on strengthening cooperation between American and European businesses and outlined key elements necessary to facilitate a “third industrial revolution,” including greater global economic integration and increased access to finance for small and medium enterprises. Fabio Franchina, President of Cosmetics Europe, and a member of the high-ranking European business delegation that accompanied Vice President Tajani on this “Mission for Growth,” also offered his perspectives. The discussion was moderated by Frédéric Badey, Senior Director of International Public Affairs Coordination at Sanofi. |
| Challenges and Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation on Cybersecurity |
| Britain’s Evolving Role in the European Union & Implications for the Transatlantic Relationship |
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European Affairs
The Journal of the European Institute
IN THE LONG RUN, WILL EUROPE BE GRATEFUL TO GREECE?
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IF SARKOZY LOSES PRESIDENCY TO HOLLANDE, WHAT HAPPENS TO FRENCH RELATIONS WITH U.S. OR EU?
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FRESH AIR FROM WORLD BANK ON EUROPE'S MUCH-MALIGNED ECONOMIC MODEL
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HISTORIC SHIFT IN U.S. DEFENSE STRATEGY WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPACT ON EUROPE
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BATTLES OVER DIGITAL COPYRIGHT (SOPA and ACTA) AND THE RISE OF “EXO-POLITICS”
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Perspectives: Looming Battle Over the Cloud
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OUR MUST READS
Mobile Moans by The Economist. A crucial reform for the eurozone, in its present economic quicksand, requires changing conditions throughout EU nations to facilitate labor mobility and cross-border migration by job-seeking Europeans. The free movement of workers was supposed to be a safety valve to ease economic adjustment in the eurozone once national currency devaluation was eliminated as a policy tool. But it has not functioned well. In theory, job migration throughout the EU is easy, but there are strong practical disincentives: the absence of pension portability, transaction costs involved in selling a house and buying another, obstacles to transferring professional qualifications. (April 27)
America’s Place in the World by Charles A. Kupchan in The New York Times. Kupchan, author of a new book, “No One’s World: the West, the Rising Rest, and the Coming Global Turn,” writes that the democratic, secular and free-market consensus synonymous with Western primacy is being challenged with rival models: state-controlled capitalism, political Islam, left-wing populism. For the first time, multiple versions of order and modernity will coexist in an interconnected world. (April 11)
Special Report-Mario Draghi’s Quiet Revolution, by Reuters in NY Times. A comprehensive, behind the scenes look at Mario Draghi’s crucial move to liberalize the money supply made available by the European Central Bank to European banks by creating one trillion new euros available for three year loans a low rate. Some are saying the move has “saved the euro.” Draghi’s European style “quantitative easing” reversed the existing tight money policy advocated by Germany. (3/12)
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European Commissioner for Research, Innovation and Science Máire Geoghegan-Quinn's visit to The European Institute in the Irish Times:
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The European Institute's event with Sergey Ryabkov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister in Europolitics:
"No clear offer yet on nuclear talks, says Russian deputy FM" by Brian Beary
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The European Institute's dicussion with Indermit Gill, Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia at the World Bank in Europolitics:
"South is Europe's Weak Link, World Bank Report Shows" by Brian Beary
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"Breaking the Iranian Nuclear Impasse" with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov in the Washington Post:
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The European Institute's 2011 Ambassadors' Dinner honoring Christine Lagarde and Dr. Elias Zerhouni in Reuters:
The European Institute Honors Christine Lagarde and Dr. Elias Zerhouni with the Prestigious Transatlantic Leadership Award
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Klaus Regling, Chief Executive Officer of the European Financial Stability Facility and Vitor Constancio, Vice President of the European Central Bank at The European Institute in Europoiltics:
"IMF creates 430 bn dollar firewall to bolster euro" by Brian Beary
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The European Institute's event on "Data Protection & Privacy: EU & U.S. Frameworks & Initiatives" in Europolitics:
"Obama not Endorsing 'Privacy by Design' for Online Data" by Brian Beary
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The Euopean Institute's event with Klaus Regling, Chief Executive Officer of the European Financial Stability Facility in NASDAQ:
"EFSF Regling: Debt Crisis Won't be Solved with Firepower Alone" by Frances Robinson
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Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov's visit to The European Institute in The Voice of Russia:
"Russia-US differences on Iran should not be exaggerated--diplomat"
Our Blog
THE FRANÇOIS HOLLANDE FACTOR: REACTIONS TO FRANCE’S NEW PRESIDENT (May 14)
By Federico Santi, editorial assistant at European Affairs Reactions to the victory of François Hollande, the first socialist to hold the French presidency since 1985, have dominated the news for days as leaders and observers around the world assess the impact that his victory, along with the tumultuous election in Greece, will have on the way Europe will deal with the current economic crisis and the swirling debate on austerity versus stimulus for growth.EU AUSTERITY AND REFORM: A COUNTRY BY COUNTRY TABLE (Updated May 3)
By Zachary Laven and Federico Santi In response to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe the Fiscal Compact was signed in March by every EU member state except the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom. The fate of this Compact has been made uncertain by the elections in France and Greece, which are seen as a popular rejection of its terms and effects. Inspired by Germany and other proponents of fiscal discipline in Europe, the pact aims to prevent excessive deficits requiring bailouts like the ones needed by Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Hungary. It requires national budgets to be in balance or in surplus, the EU’s new “golden rule.” The treaty will enter into effect on January 1, 2013, if by then twelve out of the 17 members of the Eurozone will have ratified it.GLOBAL PRESSURES RISE AGAINST EU AIRLINE EMISSION FEES (May 2)
By Zachary Laven, European Affairs Editorial Assistant In the tug-of-war over new EU rules levying carbon taxes on airlines’ flights, the U.S. has signaled for the first time that failure to change or at least postpone the European plan could hold up future progress on global climate-change talks.U.S. REQUEST FOR PASSENGER DATA GETS FINAL APPROVAL FROM EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT (April 19)
By European Affairs After years of transatlantic debate, the controversial U.S.-EU passenger name record agreement was finally ratified on April 19 by the European Parliament by a wide majority of 409 votes in favor, 226 against and 33 abstentions.STAKES ARE HIGH FOR EU DIPLOMACY IN IRANIAN NUCLEAR CRISIS (April 12)
By Garret Martin, Editor at Large, European Affairs As talks resume between Iran and the P5 + 1 (the informal group made up of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), the stakes, including war or peace, are high for every one – and not least for EU. European countries have invested much political capital in engaging Iran over the last twenty years, sometimes parting ways with Washington over the issue. In recent years, especially since the last round of talks with Iran broke off 15 months ago, the EU leaders have closed ranks with the U.S., especially the so-called E-3 countries directly involved in the talks – Britain, France and now Germany. Now, with the stark backdrop of the continent’s own economic woes, the EU badly needs a foreign-policy success to keep alive its diplomatic credibility and ambitions to be an influential global actor.ITALY'S MONTI BOOSTED BY RIVAL'S FALL (April 9)
European Affairs In the most important Italian political development since the departure of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, opposition leader Umberto Bossi, head of Italy’s Northern League party, was forced to resign from his position in a scandal involving illicit handling of party funds.LEADING EDUCATIONAL REFORMER IN EUROPE DIES SUDDENLY; DESCOINGS DIVERSIFIED ELITE SCHOOL “SCIENCES PO” (APRIL 4)
By European Affairs Richard Descoings, 53, headed the Paris Institute of Political Studies, better known as “Sciences Po” -- the university that has spawned many leading French politicians, businessmen, academics and media people. He was found dead in his hotel room with no apparent signs of crime in New York, where he was attending a UN conference of university heads.EU VOWS TO PURSUE PIRATES ON SHORE IN SOMALIA (March 30)
By William Marmon Escalating the fight against Somali-based maritime pirates, the EU has announced that its naval task force (EUNAVFOR) will expand operations to “include Somalia’s coastal territory and internal waters” – taking the anti-piracy campaign on land for the first time.NINA ERSMAN—SPOKESPERSON EXTRAORDINAIRE FOR SWEDISH EMBASSY (3/30)
By Michael Mosettig, Foreign Editor, PBS News Hour Considering that there are nearly 180 embassies clamoring for attention in Washington, it takes some special talent and skill for press attaches and counselors from middle and small nations to make distracted journalists and officials to pay them much mind.OBAMA OFFICIALS SEE EUROZONE PROGRESS AND PRAISE ECB LIQUIDITY (3/21)
By European Affairs Top U.S. financial officials said Wednesday that Europe has made significant progress in surmounting the eurozone crisis. In testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernake and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner expressed cautious optomism about the eurozone outlook and praised the European Central Bank (ECB) for its efforts to inject liquidity into the banking system to maintain financial flows. Their testimony was the first top level public statement from the Obama administration on the crisis since the EU’s most recent steps to prevent debt default, especially in Greece. According to the New York Times, Geithner said that the European situation is far less worrisome than in late 2011, but still remains a threat to global recovery and to the U.S. economic outlook. By European AffairsSTAKES RISE IN FIGHT OVER EU AIRLINES EMISSION FEES (3/12)
Fresh on the heels of the announcement last week that China was threatening to cancel orders for 9 billion euros worth of orders for Airbus jetliners, seven of Europe’s leading aviation companies have joined forces this week to formally oppose the European Union’s tax on airline emissions designed to combat global warming.IRISH REFERENDUM ON EU FISCAL PACT COULD CAUSE COMPLICATIONS (3/5)
All but two (the United Kingdom and the Czech Republic) of the twenty seven EU member states signed the new fiscal compact on 2 March. This inter-governmental agreement, aiming to prevent a recurrence of the serious debt woes that have plagued Europe, will come into effect once it is ratified by 12 of the 17 states of the Eurozone, as most are expected to do via their respective parliaments.LATVIA VOTES “NO” ON RUSSIAN AS SECOND OFFICIAL LANGUAGE (3/2)
By Zachary Laven, European Affairs Editorial Assistant The voting outcome was a resounding “no” – as widely predicted. So what is the background on this peculiar referendum, a reminder of the continuing tension between the Balkans and post-Soviet Russia. With more than 70% turnout, the vote against promoting Russian as the nation’s second official language was 75 percent and reflected the ethnic and linguistic divide between Latvian and Russian speakers. Said a relieved President Andris Berzins, “The vote on a second state language endangered one of the most sacred foundations of the Constitution: the state language.”EU FACES CONTINUED DIFFICULTY IN SECURING CASPIAN GAS (3/2)
By Aaron Brinckerhoff, European Affairs Editorial Assistant Europe’s quest for gas from the Caspian Sea – by-passing the near monopoly supplier Russia -- continues to be dogged by failure to secure a single provider. The planned Nabucco pipeline, which would run 4,000 kilometers, or nearly 2,500 miles, from eastern Turkey to Austria, has long been the EU’s chief hope of securing a reliable supply of natural gas from the Caspian region--Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Iraq. (The name Nabucco comes from the Verdi opera seen by the founding developers of the project.) For years, EU leaders and member states, along with successive U.S. administrations, have regarded this pipeline as crucial for Europe’s long-term security.GREEK DEBT SUCCESS CONFIRMS EU COMMITMENT TO EURO -- DESPITE HARD ROAD AHEAD (2/23)
BY EUROPEAN AFFAIRS Greece is the extreme basket case of the euro’s woes, so its apparent rescue from its creditors this week brought a sense of relief to people managing the crisis. The price of the breakthrough was costly both for private bondholders (in terms of their “haircut” in written-off bonds) and to the Greek people (who will have to bear even steeper cuts in payrolls and pensions).“MORALIZING CLICHÉS” ABOUT GREEKS MASK THE REAL STRUCTURAL DILEMMA (2/16)
Greece has had to bear the brunt of not only economic hardship but also relentless international criticism that the nation has a bloated public sector and an unsustainable social welfare system and is also beset by rampant systematic corruption and tax evasion. To varying degrees these accusations contain some truth, but they create a problem of stereotypes and are far from giving a complete picture of the Greeks' response to their national quandary, according to Harvard economist Richard Parker – who has worked extensively in Athens in recent months with Greek officials and international investors trying to surmount the crisis. Allowing for the fact that this consultant, who is a Kennedy School of Government lecturer, has had long friendships with top Greek officials, his hands-on experience provides a personal account that affords a more nuanced picture of Greek behavior in a very dire situation. Parker reports that in the course of his Athens consulting he encountered plenty of “fools, time-servers and pettifoggers” in the bureaucracy. But he also found many dedicated public servants hard at work trying to implement much-needed reforms. Moreover, he found that the “moralizing clichés” depicting Greeks as lazy, anti-business, and tax-evaders often do not fit with the facts. In reality, he says, Greece is not vastly different from many Europe-wide averages in many key metrics -- including the amount of national revenue from taxes as a percentage of gross national product (roughly 30 percent), the size of government (about one-fifth of the workforce) or entrepreneurial spirit in the population at large. Greece's problem, he says, does not arise from behavior singled out in clichés. Instead, the nation finds itself in a structural bind with little scope to move forward toward the economic growth Greece needs to sustain modernization. Tourism and international shipping -- Greek specialties -- have limited potential. The core problem is that Greece’s multitude of small businesses consists of "micro enterprises" ill-equipped to compete in the EU’s more open single market. What is needed -- a structural shift for the nation's economy – is clear but hard to attain. Greece, he says, must “find a niche between the hyper-efficient Germans and the low-cost Chinese.” It is bound to be, at best, "a long, dark path,” Parker says. His hope is that a short-term solution emerges now and allows time for Greece to work its way to this difficult transformation. By Aaron Brinckerhoff European AffairsON GREEK DEBT, “OWNERSHIP” OF THE ISSUES IS SPREAD TOO THIN (2/10)
After weeks of agonizing negotiations among Greek government officials, private lenders and other international creditors, the governing coalition in Athens has finally given approval to the latest round of austerity measures in order to receive a second bail-out – in time to meet its deadline for preventing a messy and potentially contagious default on its national debt in March.FOR THE NEW EU SANCTIONS ON IRAN, GERMAN SUPPORT HAS BEEN CRUCIAL (2/9)
In the stepped-up Western sanctions on Iran – now at “unprecedented levels” – a significant and enabling development has been the agreement of Germany to participate in the pan-European embargo on Iranian oil after years of reluctance in Berlin to act so strongly against Tehran.EU DATA-PRIVACY PLANS FOR OVERHAUL, WITH SOME POTENTIAL PROBLEMS FOR U.S. COMPANIES (1/25)
By Zachary Laven --- European Affairs editorial assistant The European Commission’s proposal for a sweeping overhaul of rules protecting individuals’ privacy in on-line data was unveiled Wednesday as a modernizing step that could reassure users and streamline procedures for companies in this complex new legal and technical environment.EU Agrees To Boycott Iranian Oil, Aligning With Long-Standing U.S. Ban (1/24)
A decision to halt EU oil imports from Iran, taken Monday by a meeting of the EU’s foreign ministers, marks the strongest step taken so far by Europe to counter Iran’s suspected nuclear ambitions. It coincided with an expansion of U.S. sanctions (which have long barred Iranian oil) to include Iran’s third-largest bank. A steeper financial escalation is under active consideration by the Obama administration in the form of action to cut U.S. dealings with Iran’s central bank and press allied capitals to join in isolating Iran financially. Such a move would make it harder for Tehran to use oil revenues for international purchases aimed at strengthening the country’s nuclear program.OUR SUPPORTERS
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