EA August 2017

Perspective: German Election—Staying in the comfort zone


The prank election poster in white and red reads: “Okay, one more time Merkel. But then it’s enough. SPD”. The SPD, the Social Democrats, are the junior partner of the conservative CDU in the currently governing grand coalition - and they want anything but another four years with Chancellor Angela Merkel. Published by a German satire magazine, the spoof went viral on the internet. Why? Because in a nutshell it captures the dilemma of the SPD. As long as Angela Merkel is on the stage there does not seem to be a way around her. Merkel is set to win the national elections for a fourth time. And the SPD is set to lose, once again.

Europe’s Rebound: Good News Piles Up as Central Bankers Ponder how to Throttle Down “QE”

Spellman 1On many fronts, Europe’s economy is strengthening as consumers become more confident, investment inflows accelerate, unemployment falls, and sovereign debt costs decline for the EU’s most troubled member-countries.

Brexit Accelerates Business Exodus

paul horneBanks, insurers, businesses and European Union (EU) agencies based in the UK are accelerating their moves to assure full access in the EU, the world’s largest financial-economic area. Their theoretical deadline is Friday, March 19, 2019, when Britain will be out of the EU according to EU Treaty rules, but practical hurdles make the real deadline mid-2018. The exodus of Brexit-generated refugees is also growing more urgent because the Tory government has failed to clarify its Brexit negotiating strategy during the 14 months since the fateful referendum. This policy vacuum is forcing companies to plan for the worst-case scenario – “hard Brexit.”